bayesRatings

Twins at Nationals

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIN 5 – WSH 7
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0200111005110
WSH00203020780
Team box
MIN·WSH
11
hits
8
1
home runs
1
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
138
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Keibert RuizWSH3-4314
Ryan JeffersMIN3-4311
Brooks LeeMIN2-3102
Curtis MeadWSH1-4002
Josh BellMIN1-1001
Tristan GrayMIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN4.14522
John Klein (L)MIN1.12211
Jake IrvinWSH5.08412
PJ Poulin (W)WSH1.01012
Gus Varland (S)WSH1.11002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 49%, WSH 51% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
MIN by 0.7
Expected score
MIN 5.8 – 5.1 WSH
Expected total
10.9
TwinsThe matchupNationals
+103Our fair odds−103
5.8Expected runs5.1
−0.14Power rating−0.19
4.8Runs / game5.4
5.1Allowed / game5.7
7.8Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.11
4.0Walks drawn / game3.6
16−21Season record17−20
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10349%+10548.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10351%−12655.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byWSH wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more44%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 6 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·WSH
May 6 at WSH
last game
May 6 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
MIN·WSH
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.8
runs / game
5.4
5.1
runs allowed / game
5.7
16−21
season record
17−20
10−10
home record
5−13
6−11
away record
12−7
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.11
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.49
errors / game
0.92

Rating Trend

MIN · WSH · 43 days
Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
May 6at WSHWSH 15 − 2
May 5at WSHMIN 11 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at MINWSH 7 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MINWSH 9 − 3
Jul 25, 2025at MINMIN 1 − 0
May 22, 2024at WSHMIN 3 − 2
May 21, 2024at WSHMIN 10 − 0
May 20, 2024at WSHWSH 12 − 3
Apr 23, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2023at MINWSH 10 − 4

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W