bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 5 – CLE 4
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0010400005131
CLE0010110104110
Team box
MIN·CLE
13
hits
11
0
home runs
0
2
walks
6
8
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE4-4200
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5002
Josh BellMIN2-4001
Kody ClemensMIN3-4200
Austin MartinMIN2-3001
Brooks LeeMIN2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew MorrisMIN1.00000
Kendry Rojas (W)MIN3.15135
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00000
Gavin Williams (L)CLE6.010516

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · MIN 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, CLE 57% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
CLE by 0.7
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
7.9
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+132Our fair odds−132
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.15Power rating+0.05
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game7.5
1.12Home runs / game0.98
3.9Walks drawn / game4.1
17−23Season record21−20
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13243%+14041.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−13257%−16862.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more41%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINAndrew Morris RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 5.03 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
May 9 at CLE
last game
May 9 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
17−23
season record
21−20
10−10
home record
10−8
7−13
away record
11−12
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
7.5
1.12
home runs / game
0.98
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 46 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at CLEMIN 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 21, 2025at MINCLE 5 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W