bayesRatings

Angels at Guardians

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final LAA 2 – CLE 7
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000011290
CLE02500000770
Team box
LAA·CLE
9
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
10
9
strikeouts
4
176
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4002
David FryCLE2-3101
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4202
Travis BazzanaCLE1-2002
Jo AdellLAA2-4001
Kyle ManzardoCLE2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brent Suter (L)LAA1.22211
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE6.05014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: CLE 7 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, CLE 59% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
CLE by 1.1
Expected score
CLE 4.5 – 3.4 LAA
Expected total
7.9
AngelsThe matchupGuardians
+144Our fair odds−144
3.4Expected runs4.5
−0.23Power rating+0.05
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game7.5
1.22Home runs / game0.95
3.8Walks drawn / game4.1
16−25Season record21−21
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair41.1%58.9%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14441%+14041.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−14459%−17563.6%———
SpreadCLE by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more45%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAABrent Suter RP · last 3 starts: 7.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 5 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CLE
May 10 at TOR
last game
May 10 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
LAA·CLE
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−25
season record
21−21
8−10
home record
10−9
8−15
away record
11−12
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
7.5
1.22
home runs / game
0.95
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.56
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

LAA · CLE · 47 days
Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at LAACLE 8 − 6
May 26, 2024at LAACLE 5 − 4
May 25, 2024at LAACLE 4 − 3
May 24, 2024at LAACLE 10 − 4
May 5, 2024at CLECLE 4 − 1

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W