bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TOR 4 – DET 1
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR202000000470
DET000000010161
Team box
TOR·DET
7
hits
6
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
5
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4211
Daulton VarshoTOR2-3201
Dillon DinglerDET2-3000
Jesus SanchezTOR1-2001
Jahmai JonesDET0-1001
Zach McKinstryDET1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (W)TOR6.04005
Tyler Rogers (S)TOR1.00011
Jack Flaherty (L)DET6.05404

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · TOR 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, DET 51% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.3 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.5
Blue JaysThe matchupTigers
+104Our fair odds−104
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game8.0
0.91Home runs / game0.89
2.9Walks drawn / game3.8
20−25Season record20−26
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DET chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10449%−12154.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10451%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byDET wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 10 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DET
May 16 at DET
last game
May 16 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
TOR·DET
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
20−25
season record
20−26
13−11
home record
13−7
7−14
away record
7−19
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.0
0.91
home runs / game
0.89
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.64
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

TOR · DET · 53 days
Toronto Blue JaysDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
May 16at DETTOR 2 − 1
May 15at DETDET 3 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at DETDET 10 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at DETTOR 11 − 4
May 18, 2025at TORDET 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
May 16, 2025at TORDET 5 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L