bayesRatings

Angels at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final LAA 2 – CLE 4
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000020000242
CLE20100100460
Team box
LAA·CLE
4
hits
6
1
home runs
1
4
walks
2
13
strikeouts
9
141
pitches thrown
144
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA2-3112
Angel MartinezCLE1-4211
Chase DeLauterCLE2-3001
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3001
Travis BazzanaCLE2-4000
David FryCLE0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid Detmers (L)LAA5.25226
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.24237
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, CLE 60% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
CLE by 1.2
Expected score
CLE 4.5 – 3.3 LAA
Expected total
7.8
AngelsThe matchupGuardians
+148Our fair odds−148
3.3Expected runs4.5
−0.25Power rating+0.06
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game7.5
1.19Home runs / game0.93
3.7Walks drawn / game4.3
16−27Season record23−21
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14840%+12943.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−14860%−16161.7%———
SpreadCLE by 1.2
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more46%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CLE
May 12 at CLE
last game
May 12 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
LAA·CLE
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
16−27
season record
23−21
8−10
home record
12−9
8−17
away record
11−12
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.5
1.19
home runs / game
0.93
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.56
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAA · CLE · 49 days
Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 12at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 11at CLECLE 7 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at LAACLE 8 − 6
May 26, 2024at LAACLE 5 − 4
May 25, 2024at LAACLE 4 − 3

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L