bayesRatings

Reds at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CIN 3 – CLE 10
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0011000013110
CLE2021102210120
Team box
CIN·CLE
11
hits
12
1
home runs
6
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
9
149
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle ManzardoCLE2-5223
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5212
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5111
Jose RamirezCLE1-3212
Brayan RocchioCLE2-3211
Angel MartinezCLE1-4112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.07516
Gavin Williams (W)CLE6.08207

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +8
CIN +8
123456789
largest lead: CLE 8 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, CLE 54% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupGuardians
+118Our fair odds−118
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.06
4.4Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game4.1
7.5Hits / game7.5
1.30Home runs / game0.94
4.0Walks drawn / game4.4
24−22Season record25−22
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11846%+12943.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11854%−15460.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CLE
May 16 at CLE
last game
May 16 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
CIN·CLE
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.1
24−22
season record
25−22
13−11
home record
14−10
11−11
away record
11−12
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.5
hits / game
7.5
1.30
home runs / game
0.94
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.41
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

CIN · CLE · 53 days
Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
May 16at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 15at CLECIN 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 24, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W