bayesRatings

Astros at Reds

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 3:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final HOU 1 – CIN 3
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000010000142
CIN00003000350
Team box
HOU·CIN
4
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
7
117
pitches thrown
126
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Braden ShewmakeHOU1-3111
Matt McLainCIN1-3002
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4001
Spencer SteerCIN1-3100
Sal StewartCIN1-4000
Jose AltuveHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (L)HOU5.25135
Chase Burns (W)CIN6.04132
Pierce Johnson (S)CIN1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, CIN 52% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.5 – 4.3 CIN
Expected total
8.8
AstrosThe matchupReds
+109Our fair odds−109
4.5Expected runs4.3
−0.05Power rating−0.04
5.0Runs / game4.0
5.7Allowed / game5.0
9.0Hits / game7.3
1.31Home runs / game1.33
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
16−23Season record20−19
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CIN chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10948%+13442.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10952%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCIN wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CIN
May 8 at CIN
last game
May 8 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
HOU·CIN
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.0
runs / game
4.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
16−23
season record
20−19
9−10
home record
10−9
7−13
away record
10−10
W1
streak
L8
5−5
last 10
1−9
9.0
hits / game
7.3
1.31
home runs / game
1.33
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.33
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

HOU · CIN · 45 days
Houston AstrosCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
May 8at CINHOU 10 − 0
May 11, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 0
May 10, 2025at HOUCIN 13 − 9
May 9, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 0
Sep 5, 2024at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 4, 2024at CINCIN 12 − 5
Sep 2, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2023at HOUCIN 9 − 7
Jun 17, 2023at HOUCIN 10 − 3
Jun 16, 2023at HOUCIN 2 − 1

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L

CIN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L