bayesRatings

Reds at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final CIN 2 – CHC 3
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CIN1000010000261
CHC0000001101381
Team box
CIN·CHC
6
hits
8
2
home runs
1
2
walks
7
9
strikeouts
7
168
pitches thrown
167
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael BuschCHC3-4112
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4111
JJ BledayCIN1-4111
Alex BregmanCHC1-4001
Dansby SwansonCHC1-5100
Nico HoernerCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN5.24044
Sam Moll (L)CIN0.01000
Jameson TaillonCHC5.25215
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
CIN +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHC 1 · CIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 42%, CHC 58% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupCubs
+138Our fair odds−138
3.9Expected runs5.0
+0.00Power rating+0.24
4.1Runs / game5.4
4.8Allowed / game4.2
7.3Hits / game8.9
1.31Home runs / game1.31
3.9Walks drawn / game4.6
20−15Season record23−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.0%58.0%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+13842%+14041.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13858%−16862.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CINCincinnati Reds+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CHC
May 4 at CHC
last game
May 4 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
CIN·CHC
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
4.1
runs / game
5.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
20−15
season record
23−12
10−8
home record
15−5
10−7
away record
8−7
L4
streak
W6
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.3
hits / game
8.9
1.31
home runs / game
1.31
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.40
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

CIN · CHC · 41 days
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Sep 18, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at CHCCIN 5 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at CHCCIN 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 31, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W
Apr 28at SD8 − 3W
Apr 27at SD7 − 9L
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W