bayesRatings

Reds at Cubs

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 6:10 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final CIN 4 – CHC 5
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0012000104100
CHC000300002560
Team box
CIN·CHC
10
hits
6
2
home runs
2
4
walks
6
12
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-3113
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-3112
Michael ConfortoCHC1-1111
JJ BledayCIN1-5111
Spencer SteerCIN2-4001
Elly De La CruzCIN3-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase PettyCIN5.24321
Emilio Pagan (L)CIN0.22201
Edward CabreraCHC6.09328
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 42%, CHC 58% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupCubs
+136Our fair odds−136
3.9Expected runs5.0
+0.01Power rating+0.23
4.1Runs / game5.4
4.8Allowed / game4.2
7.2Hits / game8.9
1.29Home runs / game1.29
3.9Walks drawn / game4.6
20−14Season record22−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+13642%+17336.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13658%−21868.5%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CINCincinnati Reds+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Petty RP · last 2 starts: 5.1 IP, 21.94 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CHC
May 3 at PIT
last game
May 3 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
CIN·CHC
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
4.1
runs / game
5.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
20−14
season record
22−12
10−8
home record
14−5
10−6
away record
8−7
L3
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.2
hits / game
8.9
1.29
home runs / game
1.29
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.41
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

CIN · CHC · 40 days
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 3−7
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Sep 18, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at CHCCIN 5 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at CHCCIN 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 31, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0
May 30, 2025at CHCCIN 6 − 2

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W
Apr 26vs DET3 − 8L
Apr 25vs DET9 − 2W
Apr 24vs DET9 − 8W
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W
Apr 28at SD8 − 3W
Apr 27at SD7 − 9L
Apr 26at LAD0 − 6L
Apr 25at LAD4 − 12L
Apr 24at LAD6 − 4W
Apr 23vs PHI8 − 7W