bayesRatings

Dodgers at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAD 1 – HOU 2
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000010160
HOU01100000240
Team box
LAD·HOU
6
hits
4
0
home runs
2
4
walks
0
6
strikeouts
9
100
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Braden ShewmakeHOU2-3111
Christian WalkerHOU1-3111
Andy PagesLAD3-4000
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3001
Nick AllenHOU1-3000
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shohei Ohtani (L)LAD7.04208
Peter Lambert (W)HOU7.03044
Bryan King (S)HOU2.03102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 2 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, HOU 43% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
9.5
DodgersThe matchupAstros
−132Our fair odds+132
5.3Expected runs4.2
+0.31Power rating−0.06
5.2Runs / game5.0
3.3Allowed / game5.8
9.3Hits / game9.2
1.34Home runs / game1.22
4.0Walks drawn / game3.9
22−13Season record14−22
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · HOU chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi68.5%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13257%−21868.5%———
HOUHouston Astros+13243%+17336.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byHOU wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 26 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·HOU
May 4 at HOU
last game
May 4 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
LAD·HOU
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.2
runs / game
5.0
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.8
22−13
season record
14−22
12−6
home record
8−9
10−7
away record
6−13
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
9.3
hits / game
9.2
1.34
home runs / game
1.22
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.37
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

LAD · HOU · 41 days
Los Angeles DodgersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
May 4at HOULAD 8 − 3
Jul 6, 2025at LADHOU 5 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at LADHOU 6 − 4
Jul 4, 2025at LADHOU 18 − 1
Jul 28, 2024at HOULAD 6 − 2
Jul 27, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 6
Jul 26, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 0
Jun 25, 2023at LADHOU 6 − 5
Jun 24, 2023at LADLAD 8 − 7
Jun 23, 2023at LADLAD 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L