bayesRatings

Marlins at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final MIA 4 – LAD 5
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000130000460
LAD200000003581
Team box
MIA·LAD
6
hits
8
1
home runs
0
6
walks
6
11
strikeouts
6
163
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA1-4113
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-5201
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-2002
Kyle TuckerLAD1-5002
Jakob MarseeMIA2-3100
Freddie FreemanLAD1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris PaddackMIA4.04211
Pete Fairbanks (L)MIA0.11330
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.05344
Jake Eder (W)LAD1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · MIA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 37%, LAD 63% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupDodgers
+167Our fair odds−167
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.08Power rating+0.35
4.5Runs / game5.7
4.5Allowed / game3.3
8.5Hits / game9.4
0.71Home runs / game1.61
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
13−15Season record19−9
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair37.5%62.5%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+16737%+24029.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16763%−29074.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
MIAMiami Marlins+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 15 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAD
Apr 26 at SF
last game
Apr 26 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
MIA·LAD
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
4.5
runs / game
5.7
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.3
13−15
season record
19−9
10−6
home record
11−4
3−9
away record
8−5
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
9.4
0.71
home runs / game
1.61
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.75
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

MIA · LAD · 33 days
Miami MarlinsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
May 7, 2025at MIALAD 10 − 1
May 6, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
May 5, 2025at MIALAD 7 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 7
Apr 29, 2025at LADLAD 15 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 6
Sep 19, 2024at MIALAD 20 − 4
Sep 18, 2024at MIALAD 8 − 4
Sep 17, 2024at MIAMIA 11 − 9
May 8, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L
Apr 17at COL7 − 1W