bayesRatings

Dodgers at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final LAD 2 – STL 7
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010001000272
STL301000307120
Team box
LAD·STL
7
hits
12
0
home runs
2
4
walks
1
6
strikeouts
11
154
pitches thrown
154
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL4-4202
Nolan GormanSTL1-4112
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3211
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4100
Max MuncyLAD1-3001
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD4.28408
Matthew Liberatore (W)STL5.25224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 5 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 56%, STL 44% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
9.6
DodgersThe matchupCardinals
−129Our fair odds+129
5.5Expected runs4.0
+0.32Power rating−0.02
5.4Runs / game5.0
3.3Allowed / game5.1
9.2Hits / game8.0
1.45Home runs / game1.32
3.9Walks drawn / game3.8
20−11Season record18−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · STL chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshi63.6%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12956%−17563.6%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12944%+14041.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySTL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 20 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·STL
Apr 29 vs MIA
last game
Apr 30 at PIT
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
LAD·STL
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.4
runs / game
5.0
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
20−11
season record
18−13
12−6
home record
7−8
8−5
away record
11−5
L2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
5−5
9.2
hits / game
8.0
1.45
home runs / game
1.32
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.32
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

LAD · STL · 37 days
Los Angeles DodgersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Aug 6, 2025at LADSTL 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 6
Aug 4, 2025at LADSTL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at STLLAD 7 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at STLLAD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2
Aug 16, 2024at STLLAD 7 − 6
Mar 31, 2024at LADLAD 5 − 4

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L