bayesRatings

Marlins at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 2:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final MIA 3 – LAD 2
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA010010010360
LAD010001000270
Team box
MIA·LAD
6
hits
7
2
home runs
0
7
walks
6
13
strikeouts
6
147
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Esteury RuizMIA2-4111
Liam HicksMIA1-2111
Alex CallLAD1-3001
Dalton RushingLAD1-3001
Javier SanojaMIA1-2001
Max MuncyLAD1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy AlcantaraMIA6.07224
Andrew Nardi (W)MIA1.00011
Calvin Faucher (S)MIA1.00030
Tyler GlasnowLAD5.23269
Will Klein (L)LAD2.03113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · MIA 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 38%, LAD 62% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupDodgers
+163Our fair odds−163
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.08Power rating+0.34
4.4Runs / game5.5
4.4Allowed / game3.3
8.4Hits / game9.3
0.70Home runs / game1.50
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
14−16Season record20−10
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshi31.5%72.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+16338%+21831.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16362%−26372.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
MIAMiami Marlins+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 6.35 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAD
Apr 28 at LAD
last game
Apr 28 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MIA·LAD
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.4
runs / game
5.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.3
14−16
season record
20−10
10−6
home record
12−5
4−10
away record
8−5
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
9.3
0.70
home runs / game
1.50
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.73
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

MIA · LAD · 35 days
Miami MarlinsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Apr 28at LADMIA 2 − 1
Apr 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at MIALAD 10 − 1
May 6, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
May 5, 2025at MIALAD 7 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 7
Apr 29, 2025at LADLAD 15 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 6
Sep 19, 2024at MIALAD 20 − 4
Sep 18, 2024at MIALAD 8 − 4

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L