bayesRatings

Marlins at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final MIA 2 – LAD 1
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA010010000281
LAD000000010171
Team box
MIA·LAD
8
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
13
strikeouts
4
112
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Will SmithLAD3-4001
Otto LopezMIA3-5000
Kyle StowersMIA2-5001
Owen CaissieMIA1-3001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Janson Junk (W)MIA6.03014
Tyler Phillips (S)MIA1.01000
Shohei Ohtani (L)LAD6.05139

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · MIA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 37%, LAD 63% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupDodgers
+169Our fair odds−169
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.09Power rating+0.36
4.5Runs / game5.7
4.5Allowed / game3.3
8.4Hits / game9.4
0.72Home runs / game1.55
3.5Walks drawn / game4.0
13−16Season record20−9
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair37.2%62.8%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+16937%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16963%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
MIAMiami Marlins+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAD
Apr 27 at LAD
last game
Apr 27 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
MIA·LAD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
4.5
runs / game
5.7
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.3
13−16
season record
20−9
10−6
home record
12−4
3−10
away record
8−5
L3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
9.4
0.72
home runs / game
1.55
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.72
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

MIA · LAD · 34 days
Miami MarlinsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Apr 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at MIALAD 10 − 1
May 6, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
May 5, 2025at MIALAD 7 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 7
Apr 29, 2025at LADLAD 15 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 6
Sep 19, 2024at MIALAD 20 − 4
Sep 18, 2024at MIALAD 8 − 4
Sep 17, 2024at MIAMIA 11 − 9

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L
Apr 21at SF1 − 3L
Apr 20at COL12 − 3W
Apr 19at COL6 − 9L
Apr 18at COL3 − 4L