bayesRatings

Dodgers at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final LAD 4 – STL 1
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0200100014101
STL000000010171
Team box
LAD·STL
10
hits
7
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
5
strikeouts
2
122
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-5001
Hyeseong KimLAD2-2101
Alex CallLAD1-1001
Andy PagesLAD1-4101
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4001
Masyn WinnSTL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD6.06010
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00002
Dustin May (L)STL6.07323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · LAD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 55%, STL 45% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
LAD by 1.3
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
9.3
DodgersThe matchupCardinals
−121Our fair odds+121
5.3Expected runs4.0
+0.28Power rating+0.01
5.2Runs / game5.0
3.4Allowed / game4.9
9.1Hits / game8.1
1.36Home runs / game1.33
3.9Walks drawn / game3.7
20−13Season record20−13
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · STL chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12155%−13757.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12145%+11446.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySTL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more48%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·STL
May 2 at STL
last game
May 2 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
LAD·STL
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.2
runs / game
5.0
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
20−13
season record
20−13
12−6
home record
9−8
8−7
away record
11−5
L4
streak
W6
4−6
last 10
6−4
9.1
hits / game
8.1
1.36
home runs / game
1.33
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.36
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

LAD · STL · 39 days
Los Angeles DodgersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
May 2at STLSTL 3 − 2
May 1at STLSTL 7 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at LADSTL 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 6
Aug 4, 2025at LADSTL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at STLLAD 7 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at STLLAD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W
Apr 25vs CHC12 − 4W
Apr 24vs CHC4 − 6L
Apr 23at SF3 − 0W
Apr 22at SF0 − 3L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W6
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L