bayesRatings

Astros at Reds

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 5:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final HOU 10 – CIN 0
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU02000201510130
CIN000000000050
Team box
HOU·CIN
13
hits
5
4
home runs
0
2
walks
1
4
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4112
Zach ColeHOU1-1113
Zach DezenzoHOU1-3112
Christian VazquezHOU1-4111
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4000
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (W)HOU7.03016
Nick Lodolo (L)CIN5.15412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +10
HOU +10
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · HOU 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, CIN 53% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.4 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.8
AstrosThe matchupReds
+114Our fair odds−114
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating−0.02
4.9Runs / game4.1
5.8Allowed / game4.9
8.9Hits / game7.3
1.24Home runs / game1.37
3.7Walks drawn / game4.0
15−23Season record20−18
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CIN chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11447%+10947.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11453%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more26%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CIN
May 6 vs LAD
last game
May 7 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
HOU·CIN
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.9
runs / game
4.1
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
15−23
season record
20−18
9−10
home record
10−8
6−13
away record
10−10
L1
streak
L7
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.9
hits / game
7.3
1.24
home runs / game
1.37
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.34
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

HOU · CIN · 44 days
Houston AstrosCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CIN 7−2
May 11, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 0
May 10, 2025at HOUCIN 13 − 9
May 9, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 0
Sep 5, 2024at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 4, 2024at CINCIN 12 − 5
Sep 2, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2023at HOUCIN 9 − 7
Jun 17, 2023at HOUCIN 10 − 3
Jun 16, 2023at HOUCIN 2 − 1

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W
Apr 29vs COL2 − 13L
Apr 28vs COL7 − 2W