bayesRatings

Nationals at Reds

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final WSH 1 – CIN 15
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000010130
CIN0204302415143
Team box
WSH·CIN
3
hits
14
0
home runs
4
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ BledayCIN3-5226
Dane MyersCIN1-4113
Matt McLainCIN2-3312
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN2-4102
Jose TrevinoCIN1-4102
Spencer SteerCIN2-4300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (L)WSH4.17937
Chase Burns (W)CIN6.02027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +14
WSH +14
123456789
largest lead: CIN 14 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, CIN 55% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.9 – 4.7 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupReds
+122Our fair odds−122
4.7Expected runs4.9
−0.15Power rating−0.04
5.5Runs / game4.1
5.6Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game7.3
1.21Home runs / game1.26
3.7Walks drawn / game4.0
21−22Season record22−21
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CIN chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12245%+12943.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12255%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more28%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CIN
May 13 at CIN
last game
May 13 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
WSH·CIN
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.5
runs / game
4.1
5.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
21−22
season record
22−21
6−13
home record
12−11
15−9
away record
10−10
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.3
1.21
home runs / game
1.26
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.98
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

WSH · CIN · 50 days
Washington NationalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 2−8
May 13at CINWSH 8 − 7
May 12at CINWSH 10 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at WSHCIN 5 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 8
May 4, 2025at CINWSH 4 − 1
May 3, 2025at CINWSH 11 − 6
May 2, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L