bayesRatings

Nationals at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 11:15 AM CT · loanDepot park · Final WSH 2 – MIA 5
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000110000261
MIA00200003560
Team box
WSH·MIA
6
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
7
146
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4002
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-4101
Christopher MorelMIA1-4101
Liam HicksMIA1-3001
Daylen LileWSH2-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade CavalliWSH5.24214
Gus Varland (L)WSH0.12321
Sandy AlcantaraMIA6.05223
Calvin Faucher (W)MIA2.00010
Josh Ekness (S)MIA0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 3 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, MIA 54% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 5.0 – 5.0 WSH
Expected total
10.0
NationalsThe matchupMarlins
+117Our fair odds−117
5.0Expected runs5.0
−0.17Power rating−0.10
5.4Runs / game4.3
5.6Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.10Home runs / game0.80
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
19−21Season record18−22
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11746%+10947.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11754%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 22 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIA
May 9 at MIA
last game
May 9 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
WSH·MIA
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.4
runs / game
4.3
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
19−21
season record
18−22
6−13
home record
13−12
13−8
away record
5−10
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.10
home runs / game
0.80
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.95
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

WSH · MIA · 46 days
Washington NationalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at MIAWSH 7 − 5
Sep 8, 2025at MIAWSH 15 − 7
Sep 3, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 5
Sep 2, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Sep 1, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Jun 15, 2025at WSHMIA 3 − 1

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W