bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 6 – MIA 5
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000200400690
MIA100000031581
Team box
PHI·MIA
9
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
12
174
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryson StottPHI1-3213
Otto LopezMIA3-5202
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4101
Alec BohmPHI2-4001
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-5001
Agustin RamirezMIA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.03128
Brad Keller (S)PHI1.01112
Eury Perez (L)MIA5.04226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · PHI 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, MIA 50% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.1
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−102Our fair odds+102
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.06
3.8Runs / game4.4
5.3Allowed / game4.3
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.06Home runs / game0.74
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
12−19Season record15−16
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10250%−11252.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10250%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
Apr 30 vs SF
last game
Apr 29 at LAD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.8
runs / game
4.4
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
12−19
season record
15−16
8−10
home record
10−6
4−9
away record
5−10
W3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.06
home runs / game
0.74
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.58
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 37 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at MIAPHI 9 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at MIAPHI 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Jun 16, 2025at MIAPHI 5 − 2

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W