bayesRatings

Orioles at Marlins

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final BAL 3 – MIA 4
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL001100010391
MIA201000001460
Team box
BAL·MIA
9
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
4
120
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA1-4112
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-4001
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4001
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-5001
Coby MayoBAL2-4100
Dylan BeaversBAL2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade PovichBAL3.03321
Andrew Kittredge (L)BAL0.21001
Max MeyerMIA5.06225
Calvin Faucher (W)MIA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, MIA 52% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.8 – 4.8 BAL
Expected total
9.5
OriolesThe matchupMarlins
+108Our fair odds−108
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating−0.10
4.6Runs / game4.2
5.6Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game8.3
1.08Home runs / game0.73
4.1Walks drawn / game3.5
17−20Season record16−21
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%+10548.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10852%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·MIA
May 6 at MIA
last game
May 6 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
BAL·MIA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.6
runs / game
4.2
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
17−20
season record
16−21
9−9
home record
11−11
8−11
away record
5−10
W2
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.3
1.08
home runs / game
0.73
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.68
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

BAL · MIA · 43 days
Baltimore OriolesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
May 6at MIABAL 7 − 4
May 5at MIABAL 9 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BALMIA 11 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BALMIA 6 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 2
Jul 25, 2024at MIABAL 7 − 6
Jul 24, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Jul 16, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4
Jul 15, 2023at BALBAL 6 − 5

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W
May 4at NYY1 − 12L
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L