bayesRatings

Orioles at Yankees

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BAL 2 – NYY 7
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL010000100230
NYY140000117111
Team box
BAL·NYY
3
hits
11
1
home runs
2
2
walks
6
12
strikeouts
8
167
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY2-5113
Pete AlonsoBAL1-2211
Jose CaballeroNYY1-4111
Aaron JudgeNYY2-3201
Cody BellingerNYY2-4001
Amed RosarioNYY1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Povich (L)BAL4.07524
Will Warren (W)NYY6.13119

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: NYY 5 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 40%, NYY 60% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
9.2
OriolesThe matchupYankees
+151Our fair odds−151
3.9Expected runs5.2
−0.06Power rating+0.27
4.7Runs / game4.9
5.1Allowed / game3.4
7.9Hits / game7.5
1.19Home runs / game1.55
4.1Walks drawn / game4.5
15−16Season record20−11
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+15140%+15239.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15160%−18364.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYY
Apr 30 vs HOU
last game
Apr 29 at TEX
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
BAL·NYY
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.7
runs / game
4.9
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.4
15−16
season record
20−11
9−9
home record
8−5
6−7
away record
12−6
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.9
hits / game
7.5
1.19
home runs / game
1.55
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.68
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

BAL · NYY · 37 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at BALNYY 6 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 0
Jun 22, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 0
Jun 20, 2025at NYYBAL 5 − 3

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W