bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 12:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 7 – MIA 2
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI6010000007110
MIA000000200290
Team box
PHI·MIA
11
hits
9
1
home runs
1
3
walks
0
6
strikeouts
10
126
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryson StottPHI1-4113
Esteury RuizMIA1-4112
Brandon MarshPHI2-4101
Otto LopezMIA2-4000
Christopher MorelMIA2-4000
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI6.182010
Chris Paddack (L)MIA2.26731

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +7
PHI +7
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · PHI 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, MIA 50% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.0
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−101Our fair odds+101
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.06
3.8Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.2
7.5Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game0.73
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
13−20Season record16−17
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10150%−14258.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
May 2 at MIA
last game
May 2 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.8
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
13−20
season record
16−17
8−10
home record
11−7
5−10
away record
5−10
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
0.73
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 39 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at MIAPHI 9 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at MIAPHI 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L