bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 0 – MIA 4
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000010
MIA002011004100
Team box
PHI·MIA
1
hits
10
0
home runs
1
1
walks
6
10
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
111
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4111
Otto LopezMIA2-5101
Connor NorbyMIA2-3001
Agustin RamirezMIA1-2001
Esteury RuizMIA1-4100
Kyle StowersMIA1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Painter (L)PHI5.07337
Max Meyer (W)MIA7.01017

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, MIA 49% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.1
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−103Our fair odds+103
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.07
3.9Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.06Home runs / game0.72
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
13−19Season record15−17
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10351%+10947.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10349%−13757.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
May 1 at MIA
last game
May 1 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.9
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
13−19
season record
15−17
8−10
home record
10−7
5−9
away record
5−10
W4
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.06
home runs / game
0.72
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.56
errors / game
0.72

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 38 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at MIAPHI 9 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at MIAPHI 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W