bayesRatings

Orioles at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BAL 3 – NYY 11
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL001200000391
NYY1020010711151
Team box
BAL·NYY
9
hits
15
0
home runs
3
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
3
162
pitches thrown
158
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jasson DominguezNYY3-5213
Aaron JudgeNYY2-4212
Ben RiceNYY2-2211
Ryan McMahonNYY3-4101
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4001
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey GibsonBAL4.24322
Grant Wolfram (L)BAL0.23100
Max FriedNYY5.16336
Fernando Cruz (W)NYY1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +8
BAL +8
123456789
largest lead: NYY 8 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 39%, NYY 61% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.4 – 4.0 BAL
Expected total
9.4
OriolesThe matchupYankees
+158Our fair odds−158
4.0Expected runs5.4
−0.08Power rating+0.30
4.6Runs / game5.1
5.2Allowed / game3.4
7.6Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game1.61
4.0Walks drawn / game4.6
15−18Season record22−11
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+15839%+24029.4%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15861%−29074.4%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrey Gibson SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYY
May 2 at NYY
last game
May 2 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
BAL·NYY
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
4.6
runs / game
5.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
15−18
season record
22−11
9−9
home record
10−5
6−9
away record
12−6
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.61
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.67
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

BAL · NYY · 39 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 9−1
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at BALNYY 6 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 0
Jun 22, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W