bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 1 – MIA 0
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI001000000171
MIA000000000071
Team box
PHI·MIA
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
0
8
strikeouts
7
130
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4111
Kyle StowersMIA2-4000
Jakob MarseeMIA2-4000
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Otto LopezMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI6.05005
Brad Keller (S)PHI1.02000
Janson Junk (L)MIA5.15106

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · PHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, MIA 49% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.0
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.07
3.9Runs / game4.3
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.03Home runs / game0.74
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
14−20Season record16−18
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10351%−10751.8%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10349%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
May 3 at MIA
last game
May 3 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.9
runs / game
4.3
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
14−20
season record
16−18
8−10
home record
11−8
6−10
away record
5−10
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.03
home runs / game
0.74
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.53
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 40 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
May 3at MIAPHI 7 − 2
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at MIAPHI 9 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at MIAPHI 2 − 1

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W