bayesRatings

Orioles at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final BAL 9 – MIA 7
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL3020200029101
MIA121000210792
Team box
BAL·MIA
10
hits
9
0
home runs
2
5
walks
5
10
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA4-5113
Samuel BasalloBAL3-4104
Pete AlonsoBAL2-3402
Otto LopezMIA1-5111
Joe MackMIA2-4001
Leody TaverasBAL1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris BassittBAL4.06433
Rico Garcia (W)BAL1.10012
Sandy AlcantaraMIA4.18735
Andrew Nardi (L)MIA1.02220

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · BAL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, MIA 53% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.7 – 4.6 BAL
Expected total
9.3
OriolesThe matchupMarlins
+113Our fair odds−113
4.6Expected runs4.7
−0.12Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.2
5.6Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.11Home runs / game0.71
4.0Walks drawn / game3.5
15−20Season record16−19
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%+11945.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11353%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·MIA
May 4 at NYY
last game
May 4 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
BAL·MIA
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.2
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
15−20
season record
16−19
9−9
home record
11−9
6−11
away record
5−10
L5
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.11
home runs / game
0.71
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.69
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

BAL · MIA · 41 days
Baltimore OriolesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jul 13, 2025at BALMIA 11 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BALMIA 6 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 2
Jul 25, 2024at MIABAL 7 − 6
Jul 24, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Jul 16, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4
Jul 15, 2023at BALBAL 6 − 5
Jul 14, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 2
Jul 28, 2021at BALBAL 8 − 7

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
May 4at NYY1 − 12L
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L
Apr 29at LAD3 − 2W
Apr 28at LAD2 − 1W
Apr 27at LAD4 − 5L
Apr 26at SF3 − 6L
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W