bayesRatings

Orioles at Yankees

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BAL 1 – NYY 12
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0000010001101
NYY2010030612100
Team box
BAL·NYY
10
hits
10
0
home runs
1
3
walks
8
8
strikeouts
4
145
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY2-4214
Cody BellingerNYY1-4103
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-4000
Trent GrishamNYY2-3301
Colton CowserBAL1-2001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL5.25554
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY5.27134

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +11
BAL +11
123456789
largest lead: NYY 11 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 38%, NYY 62% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
NYY by 1.5
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.0 BAL
Expected total
9.6
OriolesThe matchupYankees
+164Our fair odds−164
4.0Expected runs5.5
−0.10Power rating+0.32
4.5Runs / game5.3
5.4Allowed / game3.4
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.15Home runs / game1.65
4.0Walks drawn / game4.5
15−19Season record23−11
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+16438%+18135.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−16462%−22869.5%———
SpreadNYY by 1.5
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more49%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more39%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYY
May 3 at NYY
last game
May 3 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
BAL·NYY
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
4.5
runs / game
5.3
5.4
runs allowed / game
3.4
15−19
season record
23−11
9−9
home record
11−5
6−10
away record
12−6
L4
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.15
home runs / game
1.65
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.68
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

BAL · NYY · 40 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 9−1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at BALNYY 6 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 0

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W
Apr 28vs HOU5 − 3W
Apr 26vs BOS3 − 5L
Apr 25vs BOS1 − 17L
Apr 24vs BOS10 − 3W
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W