bayesRatings

Astros at Reds

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final HOU 0 – CIN 5
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000000000030
CIN00031100590
Team box
HOU·CIN
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
1
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
153
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer SteerCIN1-5111
JJ BledayCIN1-2102
Elly De La CruzCIN3-4200
Tyler StephensonCIN1-4001
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-4000
Matt McLainCIN0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kai-Wei Teng (L)HOU3.05311
Andrew Abbott (W)CIN6.03015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
HOU +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 5 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, CIN 53% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.6
AstrosThe matchupReds
+112Our fair odds−112
4.3Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating−0.03
4.9Runs / game4.0
5.6Allowed / game4.9
8.9Hits / game7.2
1.30Home runs / game1.30
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
16−24Season record21−19
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CIN chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11247%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11253%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCIN wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUKai-Wei Teng RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CIN
May 9 at CIN
last game
May 9 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
HOU·CIN
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.9
runs / game
4.0
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
16−24
season record
21−19
9−10
home record
11−9
7−14
away record
10−10
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.9
hits / game
7.2
1.30
home runs / game
1.30
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.38
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

HOU · CIN · 46 days
Houston AstrosCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
May 9at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 8at CINHOU 10 − 0
May 11, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 0
May 10, 2025at HOUCIN 13 − 9
May 9, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 0
Sep 5, 2024at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 4, 2024at CINCIN 12 − 5
Sep 2, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2023at HOUCIN 9 − 7
Jun 17, 2023at HOUCIN 10 − 3

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L
Apr 30vs COL6 − 4W