bayesRatings

Nationals at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final WSH 8 – CIN 7
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
WSH04101000028101
CIN5010000001770
Team box
WSH·CIN
10
hits
7
2
home runs
1
4
walks
7
10
strikeouts
8
190
pitches thrown
167
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN1-4114
Daylen LileWSH2-4113
Keibert RuizWSH1-4112
Spencer SteerCIN2-4201
Joey WiemerWSH1-4102
JJ BledayCIN1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake IrvinWSH3.04544
Gus Varland (W)WSH1.01000
PJ Poulin (S)WSH1.01011
Nick LodoloCIN4.06536
Tony Santillan (L)CIN1.01100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
WSH +5
12345678910
largest lead: CIN 5 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, CIN 55% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.8 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupReds
+124Our fair odds−124
4.6Expected runs4.8
−0.16Power rating−0.03
5.4Runs / game4.0
5.6Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game7.3
1.19Home runs / game1.26
3.7Walks drawn / game3.9
20−22Season record22−20
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CIN chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12445%+14640.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12455%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more28%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CIN
May 12 at CIN
last game
May 12 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
WSH·CIN
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.4
runs / game
4.0
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
20−22
season record
22−20
6−13
home record
12−10
14−9
away record
10−10
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.3
1.19
home runs / game
1.26
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.98
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

WSH · CIN · 49 days
Washington NationalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 2−8
May 12at CINWSH 10 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at WSHCIN 5 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 8
May 4, 2025at CINWSH 4 − 1
May 3, 2025at CINWSH 11 − 6
May 2, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Jul 19, 2024at WSHWSH 8 − 5

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L