bayesRatings

Nationals at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final WSH 10 – CIN 4
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH00214002110132
CIN0002000024100
Team box
WSH·CIN
13
hits
10
6
home runs
0
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
182
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-5224
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH3-5222
Brady HouseWSH1-4212
JJ BledayCIN2-3002
James WoodWSH1-4111
Sal StewartCIN3-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles MikolasWSH3.13122
Brad Lord (W)WSH2.22003
Brady Singer (L)CIN3.26312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +8
WSH +8
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · WSH 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, CIN 56% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.8 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
9.2
NationalsThe matchupReds
+128Our fair odds−128
4.4Expected runs4.8
−0.18Power rating−0.01
5.3Runs / game4.0
5.6Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.3
1.07Home runs / game1.29
3.7Walks drawn / game3.9
19−22Season record22−19
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CIN chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12844%+11945.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12856%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CIN
May 10 at MIA
last game
May 10 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
WSH·CIN
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.3
runs / game
4.0
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
19−22
season record
22−19
6−13
home record
12−9
13−9
away record
10−10
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
7.3
1.07
home runs / game
1.29
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.95
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

WSH · CIN · 48 days
Washington NationalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 3−7
Jul 23, 2025at WSHCIN 5 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 8
May 4, 2025at CINWSH 4 − 1
May 3, 2025at CINWSH 11 − 6
May 2, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Jul 19, 2024at WSHWSH 8 − 5
Mar 31, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 5

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L
May 3at PIT0 − 1L
May 2at PIT7 − 17L
May 1at PIT1 − 9L