bayesRatings

Reds at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CIN 4 – CLE 7
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN001030000451
CLE020002217100
Team box
CIN·CLE
5
hits
10
1
home runs
1
5
walks
7
8
strikeouts
8
160
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-4312
Brayan RocchioCLE2-3002
Dane MyersCIN1-4111
Spencer SteerCIN1-4002
Blake DunnCIN2-3100
Jose RamirezCLE2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris PaddackCIN5.06213
Sam Moll (L)CIN1.11112
Joey CantilloCLE5.04444
Erik Sabrowski (W)CLE0.10001
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · CIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, CLE 54% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.7 CIN
Expected total
7.9
RedsThe matchupGuardians
+117Our fair odds−117
3.7Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating+0.05
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.1
7.6Hits / game7.4
1.31Home runs / game0.93
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
24−21Season record24−22
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11746%+12943.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11754%−15460.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.12 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CLE
May 15 at CLE
last game
May 15 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
CIN·CLE
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
24−21
season record
24−22
13−11
home record
13−10
11−10
away record
11−12
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.4
1.31
home runs / game
0.93
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.40
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

CIN · CLE · 52 days
Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 3−7
May 15at CLECIN 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 24, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at CINCIN 4 − 2

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L