bayesRatings

Reds at Guardians

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CIN 7 – CLE 6
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0200100317110
CLE000001041680
Team box
CIN·CLE
11
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
8
4
strikeouts
6
186
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt McLainCIN2-3113
JJ BledayCIN3-5201
Jose RamirezCLE3-4001
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-3211
Spencer SteerCIN2-5201
Travis BazzanaCLE2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (W)CIN5.04132
Tejay Antone (S)CIN1.01100
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE6.27322

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · CIN 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, CLE 54% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.6 CIN
Expected total
7.8
RedsThe matchupGuardians
+119Our fair odds−119
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.06
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.1
7.5Hits / game7.4
1.32Home runs / game0.93
4.0Walks drawn / game4.2
23−21Season record24−21
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11946%+11446.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11954%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CLE
May 14 vs WSH
last game
May 13 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
CIN·CLE
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
23−21
season record
24−21
13−11
home record
13−9
10−10
away record
11−12
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
7.4
1.32
home runs / game
0.93
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.41
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CIN · CLE · 51 days
Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 24, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at CINCLE 5 − 3

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L
May 7at CHC3 − 8L
May 6at CHC6 − 7L
May 5at CHC2 − 3L
May 4at CHC4 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L