bayesRatings

Guardians at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final CLE 4 – DET 3
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE010200100441
DET020100000370
Team box
CLE·DET
4
hits
7
1
home runs
1
4
walks
6
4
strikeouts
13
153
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis BazzanaCLE2-3112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-3112
Steven KwanCLE1-2101
Riley GreeneDET2-2200
Brayan RocchioCLE0-3001
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker MessickCLE5.04236
Colin Holderman (W)CLE1.01001
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.02003
Keider MonteroDET5.02341
Tyler Holton (L)DET2.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · CLE 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, DET 50% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.1 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.1
GuardiansThe matchupTigers
−102Our fair odds+102
4.1Expected runs4.0
+0.08Power rating−0.03
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.1Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.04Home runs / game0.88
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
27−22Season record20−28
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DET chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10250%−16161.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10250%+13442.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byDET wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 20 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DET
May 18 at DET
last game
May 18 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
CLE·DET
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
27−22
season record
20−28
15−10
home record
13−9
12−12
away record
7−19
W3
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.04
home runs / game
0.88
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.37
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

CLE · DET · 55 days
Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
May 18at DETCLE 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2025at CLEDET 6 − 3post
Oct 1, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 1post
Sep 30, 2025at CLEDET 2 − 1post
Sep 25, 2025at CLEDET 4 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at DETCLE 3 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at DETCLE 4 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at DETCLE 7 − 5

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L