bayesRatings

Tigers at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 11:35 AM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final DET 3 – BAL 5
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000200010370
BAL000001013551
Team box
DET·BAL
7
hits
5
0
home runs
2
4
walks
5
6
strikeouts
6
151
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colton CowserBAL1-2113
Matt VierlingDET3-4001
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-3111
Taylor WardBAL1-4001
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-1001
Colt KeithDET1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber ValdezDET6.02125
Kenley Jansen (L)DET1.01320
Brandon YoungBAL6.25024
Dietrich Enns (W)BAL1.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, BAL 50% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.1
TigersThe matchupOrioles
−102Our fair odds+102
4.8Expected runs4.3
−0.05Power rating−0.14
3.8Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game5.5
7.8Hits / game7.8
0.87Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
20−32Season record22−29
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10250%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10250%−13156.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.5
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBAL wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 13 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BAL
May 22 at BAL
last game
May 22 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
DET·BAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.8
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.5
20−32
season record
22−29
13−12
home record
13−12
7−20
away record
9−17
L7
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.8
0.87
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.54
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

DET · BAL · 60 days
Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
May 22at BALBAL 7 − 4
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BALDET 4 − 3
Sep 21, 2024at BALDET 6 − 4
Sep 20, 2024at BALBAL 7 − 1

DET · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W