bayesRatings

Yankees at Orioles

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final NYY 2 – BAL 3
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY002000000250
BAL00000030330
Team box
NYY·BAL
5
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
11
130
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL1-2113
Ben RiceNYY2-4112
Weston WilsonBAL1-3000
Adley RutschmanBAL1-4100
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-2000
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan WeathersNYY6.11239
Brent Headrick (L)NYY0.22101
Brandon YoungBAL5.13235
Dietrich Enns (W)BAL1.21001
Anthony Nunez (S)BAL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 58%, BAL 42% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
NYY by 1.8
Expected score
NYY 5.8 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
9.7
YankeesThe matchupOrioles
−139Our fair odds+139
5.8Expected runs3.9
+0.31Power rating−0.11
5.2Runs / game4.4
3.5Allowed / game5.4
7.8Hits / game7.7
1.54Home runs / game1.02
4.5Walks drawn / game4.1
26−15Season record18−23
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BAL chance
Our model fair58.2%41.8%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13958%−15460.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+13942%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.8
NYYNew York Yankees−1.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.8 expected
New York Yankees by 17 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 17 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBAL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more52%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more41%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BAL
May 10 at MIL
last game
May 10 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
NYY·BAL
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
5.2
runs / game
4.4
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.4
26−15
season record
18−23
14−6
home record
10−11
12−9
away record
8−12
L3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.7
1.54
home runs / game
1.02
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.49
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

NYY · BAL · 47 days
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 1−9
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at BALNYY 6 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W
May 4at NYY1 − 12L
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L