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Yankees at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final NYY 3 – MIL 4
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY110001000360
MIL000300001460
Team box
NYY·MIL
6
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
6
10
strikeouts
12
140
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-4111
Aaron JudgeNYY1-3111
Blake PerkinsMIL1-2002
Luis RengifoMIL2-4100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4001
Spencer JonesNYY1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos RodonNYY4.12354
David Bednar (L)NYY0.21102
Logan HendersonMIL5.04215
Abner Uribe (W)MIL1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 49%, MIL 51% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.5 NYY
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupBrewers
+103Our fair odds−103
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.32Power rating+0.27
5.3Runs / game5.2
3.5Allowed / game3.7
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.55Home runs / game0.68
4.5Walks drawn / game4.5
26−14Season record21−16
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIL chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees+10349%−10350.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10351%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York YankeesPKour margin————
MILMilwaukee BrewersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more36%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more26%
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIL
May 9 at MIL
last game
May 9 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
NYY·MIL
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
5.3
runs / game
5.2
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.7
26−14
season record
21−16
14−6
home record
12−8
12−8
away record
9−8
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.55
home runs / game
0.68
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.50
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

NYY · MIL · 46 days
New York YankeesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
May 9at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 8at MILMIL 6 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at NYYNYY 20 − 9
Mar 27, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 5
Apr 27, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 3
Apr 26, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 6
Sep 10, 2023at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2023at NYYMIL 9 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W