bayesRatings

Brewers at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIL 3 – STL 6
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0000010023111
STL010300116110
Team box
MIL·STL
11
hits
11
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
7
strikeouts
9
145
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-5112
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5003
Jackson ChourioMIL4-4100
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4102
Luis RengifoMIL1-4001
Nolan GormanSTL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chad Patrick (L)MIL3.17434
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.16125
Riley O'Brien (S)STL0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 5 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, STL 46% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
9.0
BrewersThe matchupCardinals
−117Our fair odds+117
5.1Expected runs3.9
+0.24Power rating−0.00
5.2Runs / game4.9
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.0Hits / game8.1
0.67Home runs / game1.29
4.7Walks drawn / game3.6
18−15Season record20−14
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · STL chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11754%−13156.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11746%+10947.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySTL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILChad Patrick RP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 10 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·STL
May 3 at WSH
last game
May 3 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
MIL·STL
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.2
runs / game
4.9
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
18−15
season record
20−14
10−8
home record
9−9
8−7
away record
11−5
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.1
0.67
home runs / game
1.29
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.45
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

MIL · STL · 40 days
Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2
Sep 19, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at MILSTL 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Sep 12, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at MILSTL 8 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 0

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L