bayesRatings

Rangers at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TEX 4 – NYY 7
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX3000000014100
NYY12000121790
Team box
TEX·NYY
10
hits
9
0
home runs
3
5
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4212
Cody BellingerNYY2-3003
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4211
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-4101
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4111
Josh JungTEX3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX6.17617
Elmer RodriguezNYY4.26342
Brent Headrick (W)NYY1.10003
David Bednar (S)NYY1.21102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 4 · TEX 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 40%, NYY 60% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 3.6 TEX
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupYankees
+150Our fair odds−150
3.6Expected runs5.0
+0.02Power rating+0.34
3.7Runs / game5.5
3.8Allowed / game3.3
7.8Hits / game8.0
0.91Home runs / game1.63
3.5Walks drawn / game4.6
16−18Season record24−11
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · NYY chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+15040%+10947.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15060%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
TEXTexas Rangers+1.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYYElmer Rodriguez SP · last 1 start: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·NYY
May 3 at DET
last game
May 4 vs BAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
TEX·NYY
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
3.7
runs / game
5.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.3
16−18
season record
24−11
7−8
home record
12−5
9−10
away record
12−6
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.8
hits / game
8.0
0.91
home runs / game
1.63
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.44
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

TEX · NYY · 41 days
Texas RangersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
Apr 29at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 28at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Apr 27at TEXNYY 4 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 20, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at TEXTEX 10 − 6

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W