bayesRatings

Brewers at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 12:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIL 6 – STL 2
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL4000100016111
STL000000011240
Team box
MIL·STL
11
hits
4
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
9
152
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4113
Jake BauersMIL2-3101
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5001
Sal FrelickMIL2-5100
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4001
Brice TurangMIL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon SproatMIL4.01035
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL2.00011
Andre Pallante (L)STL6.08523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 53%, STL 47% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.9
BrewersThe matchupCardinals
−114Our fair odds+114
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.22Power rating+0.01
5.1Runs / game4.9
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game8.1
0.68Home runs / game1.26
4.7Walks drawn / game3.6
18−16Season record21−14
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · STL chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11453%−11252.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11447%−11252.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.0
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySTL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·STL
May 4 at STL
last game
May 4 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
MIL·STL
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.1
runs / game
4.9
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
18−16
season record
21−14
10−8
home record
10−9
8−8
away record
11−5
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.1
0.68
home runs / game
1.26
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.47
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIL · STL · 42 days
Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2
Sep 19, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at MILSTL 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Sep 12, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at MILSTL 8 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L