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Yankees at Brewers

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final NYY 0 – MIL 6
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000000000030
MIL04100010680
Team box
NYY·MIL
3
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
14
strikeouts
7
123
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LockridgeMIL2-2102
William ContrerasMIL1-4001
Joey OrtizMIL1-3101
Sal FrelickMIL1-3001
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4001
Jose CaballeroNYY2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (L)NYY6.06535
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL6.020211
Shane Drohan (S)MIL3.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
NYY +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, MIL 49% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 4.4 MIL
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupBrewers
−104Our fair odds+104
4.6Expected runs4.4
+0.36Power rating+0.24
5.5Runs / game5.2
3.4Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.61Home runs / game0.69
4.5Walks drawn / game4.6
26−12Season record19−16
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIL chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10451%−12655.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers+10449%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more28%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIL
May 7 vs TEX
last game
May 6 at STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
NYY·MIL
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
5.5
runs / game
5.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
26−12
season record
19−16
14−6
home record
10−8
12−6
away record
9−8
W1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.61
home runs / game
0.69
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.50
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYY · MIL · 44 days
New York YankeesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 3−7
Mar 30, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at NYYNYY 20 − 9
Mar 27, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 5
Apr 27, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 3
Apr 26, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 6
Sep 10, 2023at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2023at NYYMIL 9 − 2
Sep 8, 2023at NYYMIL 8 − 2
Sep 18, 2022at MILNYY 12 − 8

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L