bayesRatings

Rangers at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 11:35 AM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TEX 2 – NYY 9
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX001010000260
NYY100006119140
Team box
TEX·NYY
6
hits
14
1
home runs
0
7
walks
6
4
strikeouts
6
170
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY3-5203
Cody BellingerNYY3-4202
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-3112
Ryan McMahonNYY2-3101
Aaron JudgeNYY1-5001
J.C. EscarraNYY1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX5.16533
Paul BlackburnNYY1.00020
Brent Headrick (W)NYY1.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
TEX +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 7 · TEX 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 40%, NYY 60% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.6 TEX
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupYankees
+149Our fair odds−149
3.6Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.34
3.8Runs / game5.4
3.8Allowed / game3.4
7.9Hits / game7.9
0.92Home runs / game1.65
3.6Walks drawn / game4.5
17−19Season record25−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · NYY chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+14940%+12943.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14960%−15460.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
TEXTexas Rangers+1.2our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more46%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYYPaul Blackburn RP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 8.68 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·NYY
May 6 at NYY
last game
May 6 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
TEX·NYY
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
3.8
runs / game
5.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.4
17−19
season record
25−12
7−8
home record
13−6
10−11
away record
12−6
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
7.9
0.92
home runs / game
1.65
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.42
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

TEX · NYY · 43 days
Texas RangersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
May 6at NYYTEX 6 − 1
May 5at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Apr 29at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 28at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Apr 27at TEXNYY 4 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L