bayesRatings

Rangers at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TEX 6 – NYY 1
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX103200000680
NYY000001000130
Team box
TEX·NYY
8
hits
3
2
home runs
1
5
walks
1
14
strikeouts
9
122
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX2-5112
Evan CarterTEX1-4112
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4111
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-3102
Jake BurgerTEX2-4100
Cody BellingerNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX8.03108
Will Warren (L)NYY4.07637

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +6
TEX +6
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · TEX 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 39%, NYY 61% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 3.6 TEX
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupYankees
+155Our fair odds−155
3.6Expected runs5.0
+0.01Power rating+0.36
3.7Runs / game5.5
3.9Allowed / game3.3
7.9Hits / game8.0
0.89Home runs / game1.67
3.6Walks drawn / game4.6
16−19Season record25−11
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+15539%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15561%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
TEXTexas Rangers+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·NYY
May 5 at NYY
last game
May 5 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
TEX·NYY
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
3.7
runs / game
5.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.3
16−19
season record
25−11
7−8
home record
13−5
9−11
away record
12−6
L3
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
8−2
7.9
hits / game
8.0
0.89
home runs / game
1.67
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.43
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TEX · NYY · 42 days
Texas RangersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
May 5at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Apr 29at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 28at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Apr 27at TEXNYY 4 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 20, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 2

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W