bayesRatings

Yankees at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final NYY 3 – MIL 4
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYY1001000001371
MIL0000001102460
Team box
NYY·MIL
7
hits
6
1
home runs
1
7
walks
2
15
strikeouts
8
163
pitches thrown
168
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY3-5112
William ContrerasMIL2-4002
Jake BauersMIL1-4111
Jackson ChourioMIL1-5001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-1001
Brice TurangMIL1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam SchlittlerNYY6.02006
Fernando Cruz (L)NYY0.11110
Kyle HarrisonMIL4.04246
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL2.01013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
NYY +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIL 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 50%, MIL 50% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 4.4 MIL
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupBrewers
+101Our fair odds−101
4.5Expected runs4.4
+0.34Power rating+0.26
5.4Runs / game5.2
3.4Allowed / game3.8
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.56Home runs / game0.67
4.5Walks drawn / game4.6
26−13Season record20−16
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIL chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees+10150%−13156.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10150%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more37%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more27%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIL
May 8 at MIL
last game
May 8 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NYY·MIL
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
5.4
runs / game
5.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
26−13
season record
20−16
14−6
home record
11−8
12−7
away record
9−8
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.56
home runs / game
0.67
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.49
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYY · MIL · 45 days
New York YankeesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
May 8at MILMIL 6 − 0
Mar 30, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 3
Mar 29, 2025at NYYNYY 20 − 9
Mar 27, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 5
Apr 27, 2024at MILNYY 15 − 3
Apr 26, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 6
Sep 10, 2023at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2023at NYYMIL 9 − 2
Sep 8, 2023at NYYMIL 8 − 2

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W
May 1vs BAL7 − 2W
Apr 29at TEX0 − 3L
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W