bayesRatings

Athletics at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 3:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final ATH 6 – BAL 2
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH1030100016110
BAL000000020290
Team box
ATH·BAL
11
hits
9
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
10
strikeouts
11
159
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brent RookerATH2-4113
Shea LangeliersATH2-3202
Colby ThomasATH2-2001
Colton CowserBAL1-1002
Nick KurtzATH2-4300
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Civale (W)ATH5.06036
Shane Baz (L)BAL4.25535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · ATH 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 50%, BAL 50% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 5.1 – 4.7 BAL
Expected total
9.8
AthleticsThe matchupOrioles
+101Our fair odds−101
5.1Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating−0.12
4.4Runs / game4.5
4.7Allowed / game5.5
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.13Home runs / game1.08
3.7Walks drawn / game4.1
20−18Season record17−22
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+10150%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10150%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byBAL wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more41%
Athletics wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·BAL
May 8 at BAL
last game
May 8 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
ATH·BAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.4
runs / game
4.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.5
20−18
season record
17−22
8−8
home record
9−10
12−10
away record
8−12
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.13
home runs / game
1.08
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.21
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

ATH · BAL · 45 days
AthleticsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
May 8at BALATH 4 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at BALATH 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at BALATH 11 − 3
Aug 8, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at ATHBAL 7 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 7, 2024at ATHBAL 6 − 3
Jul 6, 2024at ATHATH 19 − 8
Jul 5, 2024at ATHBAL 3 − 2

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W
May 4at NYY1 − 12L
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L
May 1at NYY2 − 7L
Apr 30vs HOU5 − 11L
Apr 30vs HOU10 − 3W