bayesRatings

Athletics at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATH 12 – PHI 1
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH40312020012130
PHI000100000160
Team box
ATH·PHI
13
hits
6
4
home runs
1
5
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
110
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brent RookerATH2-4113
Zack GelofATH2-5213
Shea LangeliersATH2-5212
Jacob WilsonATH1-4112
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4111
Carlos CortesATH2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH8.04118
Andrew Painter (L)PHI3.27832

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +11
ATH +11
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · ATH 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, PHI 56% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.0
AthleticsThe matchupPhillies
+126Our fair odds−126
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.07
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.08Home runs / game1.08
3.8Walks drawn / game3.0
18−18Season record17−20
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12644%+10947.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12656%−13156.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·PHI
May 6 at PHI
last game
May 6 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
8
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
ATH·PHI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
18−18
season record
17−20
8−8
home record
10−10
10−10
away record
7−10
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.08
home runs / game
1.08
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.22
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATH · PHI · 43 days
AthleticsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
May 6at PHIPHI 6 − 3
May 5at PHIPHI 9 − 1
May 25, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at ATHPHI 9 − 6
May 23, 2025at ATHPHI 4 − 3
Jul 14, 2024at PHIATH 18 − 3
Jul 13, 2024at PHIPHI 11 − 5
Jul 12, 2024at PHIATH 6 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L