bayesRatings

Athletics at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATH 1 – PHI 9
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000001140
PHI001000539140
Team box
ATH·PHI
4
hits
14
0
home runs
3
4
walks
3
12
strikeouts
6
158
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4323
Bryson StottPHI2-4112
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4102
Trea TurnerPHI2-5201
Brandon MarshPHI3-5100
Justin CrawfordPHI2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Severino (L)ATH5.07123
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI8.030110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +9
ATH +9
123456789
largest lead: PHI 9 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, PHI 55% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.9
AthleticsThe matchupPhillies
+120Our fair odds−120
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating+0.05
4.4Runs / game3.8
4.7Allowed / game5.0
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.12Home runs / game1.03
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
18−16Season record15−20
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12045%+17336.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12055%−20867.6%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·PHI
May 3 vs CLE
last game
May 4 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
ATH·PHI
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.4
runs / game
3.8
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
18−16
season record
15−20
8−8
home record
8−10
10−8
away record
7−10
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.12
home runs / game
1.03
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.21
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

ATH · PHI · 41 days
AthleticsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
May 25, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at ATHPHI 9 − 6
May 23, 2025at ATHPHI 4 − 3
Jul 14, 2024at PHIATH 18 − 3
Jul 13, 2024at PHIPHI 11 − 5
Jul 12, 2024at PHIATH 6 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2
Jun 16, 2023at ATHPHI 6 − 1
Apr 10, 2022at PHIATH 4 − 1

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L