bayesRatings

Athletics at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATH 3 – PHI 6
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001011000371
PHI000011046120
Team box
ATH·PHI
7
hits
12
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
6
124
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4211
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4102
Brandon MarshPHI3-4101
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4111
Nick KurtzATH2-4001
Jacob WilsonATH1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey SpringsATH5.18204
Jack Perkins (L)ATH1.12212
Zack WheelerPHI6.15314
Orion Kerkering (W)PHI0.10000
Brad Keller (S)PHI1.01021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · ATH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, PHI 55% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.0
AthleticsThe matchupPhillies
+124Our fair odds−124
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating+0.06
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.8Allowed / game4.9
8.5Hits / game7.8
1.09Home runs / game1.08
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
18−17Season record16−20
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12445%+14041.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12455%−16862.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 15 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·PHI
May 5 at PHI
last game
May 5 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
ATH·PHI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
18−17
season record
16−20
8−8
home record
9−10
10−9
away record
7−10
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.5
hits / game
7.8
1.09
home runs / game
1.08
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.20
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

ATH · PHI · 42 days
AthleticsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
May 5at PHIPHI 9 − 1
May 25, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at ATHPHI 9 − 6
May 23, 2025at ATHPHI 4 − 3
Jul 14, 2024at PHIATH 18 − 3
Jul 13, 2024at PHIPHI 11 − 5
Jul 12, 2024at PHIATH 6 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2023at ATHPHI 3 − 2
Jun 16, 2023at ATHPHI 6 − 1

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W