bayesRatings

Orioles at Nationals

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final BAL 2 – WSH 3
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000002260
WSH00010200360
Team box
BAL·WSH
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
5
117
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-4112
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-5001
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-3001
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Coby MayoBAL1-3000
Samuel BasalloBAL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL7.06334
Zack Littell (W)WSH5.02023
Richard Lovelady (S)WSH0.11011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 50%, WSH 50% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
BAL by 0.6
Expected score
BAL 6.0 – 5.4 WSH
Expected total
11.3
OriolesThe matchupNationals
+102Our fair odds−102
6.0Expected runs5.4
−0.10Power rating−0.17
4.4Runs / game5.4
5.2Allowed / game5.8
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.00Home runs / game1.18
4.0Walks drawn / game3.7
20−24Season record21−23
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10250%−14258.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10250%+11446.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.6
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byWSH wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more43%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 11.85 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·WSH
May 13 vs NYY
last game
May 14 at CIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
BAL·WSH
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.4
runs / game
5.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.8
20−24
season record
21−23
12−12
home record
6−13
8−12
away record
15−10
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.00
home runs / game
1.18
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.64
errors / game
0.95

Rating Trend

BAL · WSH · 51 days
Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 18, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 6
May 16, 2025at BALWSH 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2025at WSHBAL 2 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 22, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at BALWSH 9 − 3
May 8, 2024at WSHBAL 7 − 6
May 7, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 0

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W
May 4at NYY1 − 12L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W