bayesRatings

Yankees at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final NYY 6 – BAL 2
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY105000000692
BAL000002000261
Team box
NYY·BAL
9
hits
6
2
home runs
0
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY1-3113
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4111
Samuel BasalloBAL2-4101
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-4001
Taylor WardBAL2-4100
Aaron JudgeNYY2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will Warren (W)NYY5.24216
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL4.06633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
NYY +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · NYY 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 58%, BAL 42% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
NYY by 1.7
Expected score
NYY 5.6 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
9.5
YankeesThe matchupOrioles
−136Our fair odds+136
5.6Expected runs3.9
+0.29Power rating−0.10
5.2Runs / game4.4
3.5Allowed / game5.3
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.52Home runs / game1.02
4.5Walks drawn / game4.0
26−16Season record19−23
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BAL chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13658%−14258.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+13642%+11446.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.7
NYYNew York Yankees−1.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.7 expected
New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBAL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more51%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more41%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 22 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BAL
May 11 at BAL
last game
May 11 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
NYY·BAL
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.2
runs / game
4.4
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.3
26−16
season record
19−23
14−6
home record
11−11
12−10
away record
8−12
L4
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.52
home runs / game
1.02
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.48
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

NYY · BAL · 48 days
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 1−9
May 11at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at BALNYY 7 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at BALNYY 6 − 1

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W
May 3vs BAL11 − 3W
May 2vs BAL9 − 4W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W
May 4at NYY1 − 12L
May 3at NYY3 − 11L
May 2at NYY4 − 9L