bayesRatings

Orioles at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final BAL 3 – WSH 13
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0000003003100
WSH0310007213130
Team box
BAL·WSH
10
hits
13
2
home runs
3
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
5
164
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Keibert RuizWSH3-5215
Jacob YoungWSH2-4113
Brady HouseWSH2-2213
CJ AbramsWSH3-5201
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-4111
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Bassitt (L)BAL5.06414
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.18308

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +10
BAL +10
123456789
largest lead: WSH 10 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 49%, WSH 51% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
BAL by 0.5
Expected score
BAL 5.8 – 5.3 WSH
Expected total
11.1
OriolesThe matchupNationals
+103Our fair odds−103
5.8Expected runs5.3
−0.11Power rating−0.17
4.3Runs / game5.3
5.2Allowed / game5.7
7.6Hits / game8.2
0.98Home runs / game1.18
4.0Walks drawn / game3.7
20−25Season record22−23
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10349%−10751.8%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10351%−11252.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.5our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byWSH wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more42%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more33%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 13 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·WSH
May 15 at WSH
last game
May 15 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
BAL·WSH
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.3
runs / game
5.3
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.7
20−25
season record
22−23
12−12
home record
7−13
8−13
away record
15−10
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.2
0.98
home runs / game
1.18
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.62
errors / game
0.93

Rating Trend

BAL · WSH · 52 days
Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 15at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 18, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 6
May 16, 2025at BALWSH 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2025at WSHBAL 2 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 22, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at BALWSH 9 − 3
May 8, 2024at WSHBAL 7 − 6

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W
May 5at MIA9 − 7W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L